Even as Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump are more or less deadlocked in polls, they might be just one minor polling error away from a landslide victory, according to an analysis.
As internal divisions and political polarisation in the United States stand at levels unprecedented in recent years, polls suggest that the 2024 presidential election is set to be very narrow, but G Elliott Morris, the Editorial Director of election news and analytics outlet FiveThirtyEight, that both Harris and Trump are in a position to score a landslide victories if polls go even slightly wrong — as they have gone wrong in recent years.
Most polling averages put Harris 1-2 per cent ahead of Trump which is well within the margin of error, effectively meaning that the two are tied.
For example, even as The New York Times shows Harris ahead of Trump by 1 per cent in polling average, Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn notes that neither of the candidate has any “material lead” in decisive swing states and Polling Editor Ruth Igielnik notes that “the polls are so remarkably close that neither candidate has a meaningful edge in this final stretch”.
