Florida: How Trump era turned one of the biggest swing states red

The coastal state of Florida located in the South Atlantic region of the United States was admitted into the Union in March 1845. Since its admission, the state has participated in every US presidential election. An interesting fact about the state is that it did not participate in the 1864 presidential race. Like most of the southern states at the time, Florida voted almost exclusively for Democrats from Reconstruction until the mid-20th century, before becoming a Republican stronghold in 1952.

It is pertinent to note that Florida’s population expanded over 70 years and hence its electoral importance grew as well. From having eight electoral votes at the end of World War II to 29 during the 2010s. The state eventually gained 30th electorates after the 2020 census surpassing New York for having the third highest electoral vote in the country. More recently, the GOP has again been ascendant, winning most statewide races. Former US President Donald Trump won twice here; in 2020 it was the only battleground state where he expanded his winning margin from 2016 (1.2 per cent to 3.3 per cent).

Who are the voters?

According to the data released by the Florida government, as of August 2024, 31.9 per cent of the population are registered Democrats, 39.3 per cent are registered Republicans and 25.9 per cent of the population have. Based on race and ethnicity, here’s what the population of Florida looks like:

Is it Democrat or Republican?

As mentioned before, Florida voted almost exclusively for Democrats from Reconstruction until the mid-20th century, before becoming a Republican stronghold in 1952. While Florida was touted as a swing state, it predominantly turned red in recent years. The last Democratic presidential candidate who won Florida was former President Barack Obama, squeaking by for a second time in 2012 thanks to strong Black turnout and support from Hispanic voters.

However, Democrats were not able to hold onto the past laurels. Republicans control every partisan statewide office. The last time the state had a Democratic governor was in the 1990s. Interestingly, the closest Democrats ever came to winning the governorship was in 2018, when then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum narrowly lost to current Governor Ron DeSantis, who was strongly endorsed by Trump at that time.

Is it a swing state?

There was a time in history when the state of Florida used to be a swing state, so much so that in the 2000 elections the Supreme Court took one month to decide the winner of the presidential race in the state. During the race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, Florida became the key and eventually the only battleground with no clear results. With just 537 votes Bush won the state and also the presidency.

In recent years the state has been touted as a strong Republican ground with Trump being the favourite in the state in the last two elections. Florida Republicans passed Democrats in voter registration numbers in 2021 and outpaced Democrats this year by 305,950 voters. The registered Republicans dominate in rural, suburban and midsize counties, and Democrats have maintained advantages in urban areas. The presence of Governor Ron DeSantis also made the state leave towards the GOP.

Has it given the US a president?

Interestingly, no US President has been born in the state of Florida as of now

Historic Election

In the initial days of its existence, the state has witnessed several historic elections. The state helped the Whig candidate Zachary Taylor get elected to be the US president in 1848. That was the last general election not won by a Republican or Democratic candidate. During the 1860 elections, Florida was one of the 10 slave states that did not provide ballot access to the Republican nominee, Abraham Lincoln. As a result, John C. Breckinridge emerged victorious. Shortly after this election, Florida seceded from the Union and became a part of the Confederacy.

Because of this reason, the state was not able to participate in the 1864 presidential election. With the end of the Civil War, Florida rejoined the Union and participated in the 1868 presidential election. Another notable election was the 2000 race when Bush led Al Gore by less than 2,000 votes on election day, but as the recount proceeded, the gap between the two sides continued to narrow. The Bush campaign later filed a lawsuit against Gore in the Supreme Court, arguing that the recounting of votes in certain counties violated the Equal Protection Clause of the US Constitution. The Supreme Court announced the halt of vote recounting and Bush eventually won the state with only 537 votes. However, the result still sparks controversy.