Could the 2024 US election create a historic split in Congress?

The 2024 elections in the United States may make history, not just for the presidential race, but for what could happen in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

The House could flip from Republican to Democratic control, while the Senate may shift from Democratic to Republican leadership. If that happened, the two chambers of US Congress would change partisan control in the opposite direction for the first time in over two centuries.

The battle for control over the House and the Senate is intensely competitive, with pivotal races across the country. We take a look at the contests shaping what may be an unprecedented election cycle.

Democrats eye a comeback in the House

The Democratic Party is in striking distance of reclaiming the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs. Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to wrest control from the Republicans.

Interestingly, they could achieve this entirely from New York, where four Republican-held districts were decided by margins of less than 5 per cent in 2022. These districts, which include the 4th District on Long Island and the 17th, 19th, and 22nd districts in upstate New York, would have gone to Joe Biden in 2020 under the current lines.

Polling in New York’s 4th District, released by Newsday/Siena College, shows Democratic challenger Laura Gillen ahead of Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito by 12 points. Similarly, Siena’s state poll indicates that Democrats are performing about 5 points better than in 2022, a swing that could tip all four of these key districts.

The 22nd District, heavily redrawn to favour Democrats, is already leaning in their direction, while the 17th and 19th districts are considered toss-ups.

Additionally, California offers Democrats further opportunities with five Republican-held seats deemed toss-ups. Joe Biden carried four of these in 2020 under current district boundaries.

The outlook for Democrats is buoyed by the fact that only 4 per cent of House districts voted one way for president and another for the House in 2020, reinforcing the high likelihood of straight-ticket voting in this election.

Republicans poised for a flip in the Senate

The Senate presents a very different challenge for Democrats. Of the 34 Senate seats up for election, Democrats or independents who caucus with them hold 23.

Seven of the eight most competitive races are for seats currently held by Democrats, while Republicans only have one highly contested seat.

The math is straightforward: Republicans need a net pickup of one seat to take control if the incoming vice president is a Republican, or two if the vice president is a Democrat.

The Senate race in Montana is pivotal, where Democratic Senator Jon Tester faces a tough challenge from Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. Montana has long been a Republican stronghold, and polling indicates that Tester is struggling in this predominantly red state.

Similarly, in Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, known for his populist, pro-union stance, is in a tight race against Bernie Moreno, a Colombian immigrant and car dealership owner endorsed by Trump. Ohio has trended Republican in recent years, and polls show Brown and Moreno neck and neck.

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In contrast, Nevada’s swing-state dynamics make it another key battleground. Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, facing Republican Sam Brown, a decorated war veteran, finds herself in a close race in a state where voters are nearly evenly divided between the two parties.

In West Virginia, the retirement of independent Senator Joe Manchin gives Republicans a golden opportunity to gain another seat. The heavily Republican state is almost certain to elect a GOP candidate.

Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, a member of the “blue wall” states, faces increasing pressure from millionaire Republican Eric Hovde, who has focused his campaign on issues like government spending and border control. Baldwin’s early lead has evaporated as the race draws closer, leaving her vulnerable.

How the Trump and Harris race is influencing Congress

The close alignment between presidential and down-ballot voting further amplifies the stakes in this year’s congressional elections. With former US President Donald Trump running against incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris, their respective coattails will likely affect many Senate and House races.

Analysts point out that straight-ticket voting has surged in recent years, with voters increasingly choosing candidates from the same party for both the presidency and congressional seats. This trend was particularly evident in 2020, where only one state, Maine, voted differently for president and Senate.

Senate races in swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are expected to mirror the intensity of the presidential contest.

In Arizona, the retirement of Senator Kyrsten Sinema has opened the door for a fierce battle between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake, a Trump ally known for questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Polls initially showed Gallego with a comfortable lead, but the race has tightened considerably.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey is facing a strong challenge from former hedge fund CEO David McCormick. McCormick has painted Casey as a career politician out of touch with ordinary Pennsylvanians, while Casey has hit back by highlighting McCormick’s ties to China and opposition to gun control measures. With Pennsylvania’s critical swing state status, this Senate race could go either way.

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In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst, is running to replace retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. Slotkin faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman backed by Trump, in a state that has swung between parties in recent years.

Similarly, Texas sees a hotly contested race where Republican Senator Ted Cruz, known for his polarising politics, faces a serious challenge from Democrat Colin Allred, a former NFL player and current congressman. Texas’s changing demographics, particularly its growing urban population, make this race one to watch.