The US economy is showing growing signs of an impending recession, according to a US-based financial analyst.
Analyst Jesse Colombo, who previously predicted economic trouble in December, said the downturn was evident long before President Donald Trump’s election victory in November.
His assessment, based on key recession indicators, suggests the economy may have already entered a contraction.
A major warning sign is the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecasting model, which updates in real-time based on economic data.
Last Thursday (February 27), the model projected a 2.3 per cent annual growth rate for the first quarter of 2025. By Friday, the estimate had dropped to -1.5 per cent, and after additional data on Monday, it plunged further to -2.8 per cent, indicating a recessionary trend.
Consumer spending and housing slump
A sharp decline in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, is a primary factor behind the revised forecasts. In January, consumer spending contracted for the first time in nearly two years as inflation concerns led many Americans to cut back.
The downturn in residential investment– spending on new housing and home renovations– also contributed to the worsening outlook. Housing accounts for 15 per cent to 18 per cent of GDP, making it a crucial economic driver.
Recession indicators flashing red
Market indicators are reinforcing concerns of a looming recession. Polymarket, a major prediction market, shows rising odds of an economic downturn in 2025.
Content retrieved from: https://www.firstpost.com/world/united-states/us-hurtling-towards-recession-warns-financial-analyst-jesse-colombo-amid-uncertainty-over-trump-tariffs-13869157.html.
